# Blog

A tale of floods and dams

– comparing the Greek and Bulgarian balance of payment and fiscal performance “Fortune can be compared to a river that floods, destroying everything in its way. But when the weather is good, people can prepare dams...

19th March 2015 by Guntram Wolff 4026 views

# Blog

Limits to the Greek bank run?

– the limits on political union define the limits on monetary union – An important question has emerged this week as regards the role of the ECB as a lender of last resort to banks in Greece. The press has wi...

17th February 2015 by Guntram Wolff 4245 views

# Blog

A new start for Greece?

Greece’s new government under prime minister Alexis Tsipras – in power for not even two weeks – has had a rollercoaster ride. In the face of crisis, it has exercised brinkmanship. It unilaterally declared that it w...

11th February 2015 by Guntram Wolff 1963 views

# Blog

The Greek banking system: a tragedy in the making?

As the ECB has decided to discontinue allowing Greek government bonds to be used as collateral in normal ECB refinancing operations, attention is fully back on the Greek banking system.[ref]The European Central Bank’s Go...

6th February 2015 by Guntram Wolff 2859 views

# Blog

Greece and the euro area need a deal within days, not months

International press informs us that the Greek government believes it has weeks or perhaps months to negotiate a new deal with its creditors. The basic idea of the new Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis is that Greec...

2nd February 2015 by Guntram Wolff 2547 views

# Blog

The ECB has fired its bazooka

The ECB announced today an expansion of its asset purchases, to include securities issued by European agencies and institutions, as well as central government in the euro area. Purchases are intended to be continued unti...

22nd January 2015 by Guntram Wolff 2310 views

# Blog

The ECB’s bond-purchase dilemma

German opposition to government-bond purchases by the European Central Bank is solidifying ahead of the programme’s likely announcement on January 22. Elections in Greece that could bring a government that will seek to n...

21st January 2015 by Guntram Wolff 2400 views

# Blog

Die EZB ist verpflichtet, ihr Mandat zu erfüllen

Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) wird wohl am 22. Januar ein Ankaufprogramm für Staatsanleihen ankündigen. Die Sorgen über die Auswirkungen und die Effektivität des Programms sind groß. Die EZB muss vorsichtig die Koste...

19th January 2015 by Guntram Wolff 2642 views

# Blog

Sovereign QE and national central banks

Inflation continues to fall. The first outright deflation numbers since 2009 have been recorded and inflation expectations are clearly dis-anchored. Inflation and inflation expectations are now clearly below the 1.7 to 1...

13th January 2015 by Guntram Wolff 2497 views

# Blog

Why Grexit would not help Greece

The genie is out of the bottle: Europe is again discussing the possibility of Greece leaving the euro. With it, the debate has re-emerged whether this would be helpful or not for Greece and whether there would be contagi...

6th January 2015 by Guntram Wolff 2809 views