# Blog

How can Europe escape recession in 2015?

2014 will be remembered for two major unexpected developments. First, the European Union was caught by surprise by the return of geopolitics. The annexation of Crimea, the military conflict in Ukraine and the increasing ...

23rd December 2014 by Guntram Wolff 3220 views

# Blog

European banking union and financial integration

At a famous summit in June 2012, the European leaders announced that they intend to “break the vicious circle” between banks and sovereigns. This decision started a new step in European integration. Arguably, the creatio...

19th December 2014 by Guntram Wolff 2554 views

# Blog

Lessons from the Bank of Japan for the euro area

The decision of the Bank of Japan end of October 2014 to significantly expand its asset-buying programme came as a surprise. The yen weakened and stock markets rallied. The decision taken with only a small majority by th...

18th November 2014 by Guntram Wolff 2364 views

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# Publications

Eurosystem collateral policy and framework: Was it unduly changed?

All Eurosystem credit operations, including the important open market operations, need to be based on adequate collateral. Liquidity is provided to banks against collateral at market prices subject to a haircut. The Euro...

17th November 2014 by Guntram Wolff 7764 views

# Blog

Europe’s fiscal wormhole

The International Monetary Fund now estimates a 30% risk of deflation in the eurozone, and growth figures within the monetary union continue to disappoint. But policymakers seem trapped in a cat’s cradle of economic, pol...

24th October 2014 by Guntram Wolff 2742 views

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# Publications

So far apart and yet so close: Should the ECB care about inflation differentials?

Inflation rates can differ across regions of monetary unions. We show that in the euro area, the US, Canada, Japan and Australia, inflation rates have been substantially and persistently different in different regions. D...

22nd September 2014 by Guntram Wolff 5535 views

# Blog

Monetary policy cannot solve secular stagnation alone

Larry Summers crystallized an important development and question in a recent speech given at the IMF research conference: has the world economy entered a period of “secular stagnation”? The slow recovery in the US since ...

19th August 2014 by Guntram Wolff 4225 views

# Blog

The OMT programme was justified but the fiscal union question remains

I concur with Mody’s overall conclusion that the monetary union, even with the OMT programme, is incomplete and the issue of fiscal union remains unresolved. To permanently stabilise monetary union, the EU will nee...

15th July 2014 by Guntram Wolff 3117 views

# Interviews

European Central Bank cut interest rates to lowest level

Most economists had been expecting an interest rate cut, but the bank went even further than that. CCTV’s Sandra Gathmann has the details from Brussels....

6th June 2014 by Guntram Wolff 3126 views

# Blog

Addressing weak inflation: The ECB’s shopping list

In this blogpost, we summarize our recently published paper, in which we discuss in detail the dilemmas for the ECB and the need to act. Inflation forecasts by the ECB have fallen substantially below the two percent thre...

6th May 2014 by Guntram Wolff 2614 views