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Dr.
Guntram B. Wolff Welcome to my personal homepage I am the deputy
director of Bruegel, the European
think tank contributing to the quality of European economic policy making. Previously,
I worked for the European Commission's DG for Economic and Financial Affairs.
My work at ECFIN focused on the macroeconomics of the euro area and the
reform of euro area governance. Prior to joining the Commission I was an
economist in the economics and research departments of the Deutsche
Bundesbank, where I coordinated the research group on fiscal policy. I hold a
PhD from the Areas of expertise: euro area
economy and governance, Contact:
guntram.wolff |
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Publications
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Recent
- Spain
and the fiscal compact, Bruegel comment, also published on eurointelligence and El
País, 8 March 2012 - Collateral
is key for target debate, Bruegel comment, 7 March 2012 - A
Greek deal – the end of the eurozone crisis?, Bruegel comment also
published in El Economista, 21
February 2012. - How
to deal with Europe’s debt challenge, Bruegel comment, also published on eurointelligence and La Repubblica, 17 February 2012. - Corporate
balance sheet adjustment: stylized facts, causes and consequences (with
Eric Ruscher), Bruegel Working Paper, February 2012, also see the VoxEU column. - The
debt challenge in Europe (with Alan Ahearne), Bruegel Working Paper,
January 2012. - Growth
in Europe: don’t forget the long-run, Bruegel comment, 26 January 2012. - Should
we go back on Greek PSI?, Bruegel comment published in Kathimerini, 10 January 2012. - The
logic of one currency only having one finance minister, Parliamentary
Brief, 9 January 2012. - Rating
agencies and sovereign credit risk assessment (with Nicolas Véron), Bruegel
Policy Contribution for European Parliament hearing, December 2011. - The
last summit?, Bruegel comment also published in El País, 14 December 2012. - A
German fiscal union?, Bruegel comment also published in El Economista, 5 December 2011 - What
kind of fiscal union?, (with Benedicta Marzinotto and André Sapir), Bruegel
Policy Brief, 23 November 2011. - (Com-)Mission
to Rome or what a euro area finance ministry means, Bruegel comment, 16
November 2011. - Rules
and risk: structural reforms help, Bruegel comment published also in El País, 14 November 2011. - The Greek demos vs. the Greek demons, (with
Shahin Vallée), Bruegel comment, 3 November 2011. - How
to restore trust in the ECB, comment in Financial Times, 1 November, 2011. - An
evaluation of IMF surveillance of the euro area, (with Jean Pisani-Ferry
and André Sapir), Bruegel Blueprint, Volume XIV - A
glass half full, comment on the Euro Summit 27 October 2011. - Is
recent bank stress really driven by the sovereign debt crisis?, Bruegel
Policy Contribution 12/2011 (see also my VoxEU
column on it as well as Stephanie Flanders blog
and FT’s
money supply blog) - Rules
and Risk in the euro area, (with Anna Iara), Bruegel Working Paper
10/2011. .
Bloomberg TV, Leveraged EFSF would calm markets, Youtube-Link. - Why
we should listen to Tim Geithner, op-ed, September 2011. - Changing
of the guard: huge challenges ahead for the new ECB president, Bruegel
Policy Contribution for European Parliament Hearing, September 2011. - How
effective and legitimate is the European Semester? Increasing the role of the
European Parliament, (with Mark Hallerberg and Benedicta Marzinotto), Bruegel
Workling Paper 09/2011. - How
European funds can help Greece grow, (with Benedicta Marzinotto and Jean
Pisani-Ferry), comment, Financial Times,
p.8, July 28, 2011. - An
action plan for Europe’s leaders, (with Benedicta Marzinotto and Jean
Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel policy contribution, 20 July 2011 - EIP
1.0: High time to address macroeconomic imbalances, eurointelligence, 7 July 2011, La Repubblica 8 March 2012. - Fledgling
referee of systemic risk (with Silvia Merler), published in Financial
World, July 2011 - Lack
of collateral will stop euro flow, letter to Financial Times, 8 June 2011 (pdf). - The
euro area’s macroeconomic balancing act, Bruegel policy contribution,
18 May 2011 - ESRB
should act on sovereign risk, op-ed published on 5 May 2011 at Bruegel, eurointelligence, FTD and La Repubblica. -
Sovereign risk: the impact of national numerical fiscal rules, (with Anna
Iara) Voxeu.org, 20
January 2011 link. The column was quoted by eurointelligence’s news-brief
of January 20. The working paper is published here: European
Economy - Economic Paper 433 -
Balance sheet adjustment in the corporate sector, in: Quarterly Report on the
Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 9(3),
(with E. Ruscher), 2010 (pdf). -
Banking and Sovereign Risk in the euro area, (with Stefan Gerlach and Alexander
Schulz), CEPR DP 7833, Deutsche
Bundesbank DP 9/2010, The paper is discussed in the
German newspaper Börsenzeitung
of 27. August 2010. Here is an earlier ECB
conference version. Journals
14.
Identifying discretionary fiscal policy reactions with real time data (with
Ulf von Kalckreuth), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
2011 (link)
older working paper version Bundesbank DP 24-2007. 13. Heterogeneity in money
holdings across euro area countries: the role of housing, (with Ralph Setzer
and Paul van den Noord), European Journal of Political Economy (link),
older version: European
Economy - Economic Paper 407, Deutsche
Bundesbank DP 4/2010. see also: VoxEu.org, May 15. 2010
and European
Economy Research Letter 12.
The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in 11.
The German sub-national government bond market: structure, determinants of
yield spreads and 10.
Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia in EMU (with
Mark Hallerberg), Public Choice, 136(3-4), 379-396, 2008. (Springer online)
working paper: Bundesbank
DP 35-2006. 9. The effectiveness of subsidies
revisited: accounting for wage and employment effects in business R&D
(with Volker Reinthaler), Research Policy, 37, 1403-1412, 2008. (sciencedirect). 8.
Moral hazard and bail-out in fiscal federations: Evidence for the German
Länder (with Kirsten Heppke-Falk), Kyklos
– International Review for Social Sciences, 61(3), 425-46, 2008. (article
online), working paper: Bundesbank DP 07-2007. See also Bundesbank
monthly bulletin article of October 2007. 7. Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal
transparency and sovereign risk premia (with Kerstin Bernoth), Scottish Journal of Political
Economy, 55(4), 465-87, 2008. (article
online), working paper versions Bundesbank DP 19-2006, cesifo WP 1732, DNB working
paper 103, 2006. 6.
Fiscal Crises in U.S. Cities: Structural and Non-structural Causes, ICFAI
Journal of Public Finance, VI(1), February 2008, working paper: ZEI Working Paper B04-28. 5. Foreign direct investment in
the enlarged EU: do taxes matter and to what extent?, Open Economies
Review 18(3), 327-46, 2007. (Springer online),
working paper version Bundesbank
DP 13-2006, online
appendix. 4. What do deficits tell us about
debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU
(with Jürgen von Hagen), Journal of Banking and Finance,
volume 30 (12), 3259-3279, 2006. (sciencedirect),
working paper version: Bundesbank
DP 38-2004, CEPR DP4759,
2004; The article was discussed by Wolfgang Munchau in the Financial Times, December 13, 2004 and by
Sophie Büning in the Financial Times Deutschland, December 6, 2004. 3.
Measuring tax burdens in 2.
A Compromise Estimate of German Net National Product 1851-1913 and its
Implications for Growth and Business Cycles (with Carsten Burhop), Journal
of Economic History, volume 65 (3), p. 613-657, 2005. This research was discussed by Jennifer
Lachman in the Handelsblatt on May
15, 2006, p.11 (pdf). 1.
Data and method choice and their relevance for business cycle history;
Datenwahl, Methodenwahl und ihre Bedeutung für die Konjunkturgeschichte (German
with English abstract, with Carsten Burhop), Vierteljahrschrift für
Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte, volume 91 (2), 2004.
(abstract). Chapters
in books and reports
-
Balance sheet adjustment in the corporate sector, in: Quarterly Report on the
Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 9(3),
(with E. Ruscher), 2010 (pdf). -
Competitiveness and current account divergences in the euro area, in:
Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels,
Vol. 9(1), (with E. Ruscher and M. Zogala), 2010 (pdf).
The Quarterly Report is discussed
in the NZZ,
the Handelsblatt,
and in the Japanese Economist. Long
version of the report is published as “Surveillance
of intra-euro-area competitiveness and imbalances”, European Economy
1/2010. The Eurogroup concluded on the issue on March 15, 2010 (word).
The article is discussed by Ruth Berschens in the Handelsblatt
Nr. 100 of 27.05.2010 page 8. -
Underlying domestic macroeconomic imbalances fuelled current account
deficits, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG
ECFIN, -
Anatomy of current account surpluses in the euro area, in: Quarterly Report
on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 9(1), 2010 (pdf).
The article is discussed by Ruth
Berschens in the Handelsblatt
Nr. 100 of 27.05.2010 page 8. - Global
current-account imbalances and implications for the euro area, in: Quarterly
Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 8(3),
(with M. Giorgio Marrano), October 2009 (pdf). - Competitiveness developments in the euro area, in:
Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels,
Vol. 8(1), (with N. Balta and A. Turrini), March, 2009 (pdf). - Bank lending and
transmission to the real economy (with G. Tournemire), in: Quarterly Report
on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Volume 7 (4), December, 2008
(pdf).
- Discussion of “European
Productivity Gaps: Is R&D the Solution?”, in: “Competitiveness and Growth
in Europe: Lessons and Policy Implications for the Lisbon Strategy”, Susanne Mundschenk,
Michael Stierle, Ulrike Stierle - von Schütz and Iulia Traistaru (eds.),
Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK; Northhampton, MA, USA, 2006. - Regional Specialization
and Employment Dynamics in Transition Countries (with Iulia
Traistaru) in: "Emerging Market Economies and European Economic
Integration", Scott Hacker and Börje Johansson (eds.), Edward Elgar,
Cheltenham, -
Adjustment Capability of Regional Labour Markets (with Thiess Büttner, Vera
Gacs, Peter Huber, Anna Iara, and Iulia Traistaru), report to the European
Commission, 2003 (pdf). Working papers
- How
effective and legitimate is the European Semester? Increasing the role of the
European Parliament, (with Mark Hallerberg and Benedicta Marzinotto),
Bruegel Workling Paper 09/2011. - Rules
and Risk in the euro area, (with Anna Iara), Bruegel Working Paper
10/2011, older version: Rules and risk in the euro area: does rules-based
national fiscal governance contain sovereign bond spreads?, European
Economy - Economic Paper 433 -
Banking and Sovereign Risk in the euro area, (with Stefan Gerlach and Alexander
Schulz), CEPR DP 7833, Deutsche
Bundesbank DP 9/2010, preliminary ECB
conference version. -
External rebalancing is not just an exporters’ story: real exchange rates,
the non-tradable sector and the euro, (with Eric Ruscher), European
Economy-Economic Paper No 375, 2009. -
Money demand in the euro area: new insights from disaggregated data, (with
Ralph Setzer), European
Economy-Economic Paper No 373, 2009. MPRA 17483 -
Sovereign bond market integration:
the euro, trading platforms and financial crises, (with Alexander Schulz),
2009. MPRA 16900
older version is “sovereign bond
market integration: the euro, trading platforms and globalization, Bundesbank
DP 12-2008, European
Economy-Economic Paper No 332, (pdf)
2008. -
Does anticipation of government spending matter? The role of (non-) defense
spending (with Jörn Tenhofen) Bonn
Econ DP 12/2010 Older version: Does anticipation
of government spending matter? Evidence from an expectation augmented VAR, Bundesbank DP 14-2007, 2007. -
Schuldenanstieg und
Haftungsausschluss im deutschen Föderalstaat: Zur Rolle des Moral Hazard,
Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability working paper,
2008. -
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National Accounting and the Business Cycle in Other
-
Sovereign risk: the impact of national numerical fiscal rules, (with Anna
Iara) voxeu.org, 20
January 2011 link. The column was quoted by eurointelligence’s news-brief
of January 20. -
Diverging trends in money demand and housing across the Eurozone, (with P.
van den Noord and R. Setzer), VoxEu.org, May 15,
2010. -
Budget institutions can reduce fiscal indiscipline, published at http://www.eurointelligence.com,
26.03.2007 -
Budget institutions to counteract fiscal indiscipline in - Aufschwung anno 1851? Zur
Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandprodukts in der Zeit 1851-1913, November 2006, (pdf). -
Is there a need to harmonize social policies in -
Research and Development in Europe: Implications for the -
Local Fiscal Crises in Federal Systems, ZEI report
12/13 2003, p.6. -
Estimating an Investment Function (with Susanne Mundschenk), 2001. -
The Effects of Public Expenditure
on Economic Growth, Diplomarbeit, http://ideas.repec.org/e/pwo44.html |
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CV
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Professional
experience |
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2011 – present |
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2008 – 2011 |
Economist, DG ECFIN, European Commission |
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2004 – 2008 |
Economist, Deutsche Bundesbank |
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2005 – present |
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2000 – 2004 |
Research Fellow, Center
for European Integration Studies (ZEI),
University of Bonn |
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2002 |
Visiting
researcher, University of Pittsburgh |
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Internships |
- European
Central Bank (ECB), - Inter-American
Development Bank (IADB), - Hermes Kreditversicherungs-AG,
Hamburg, Germany, - Hanns
Seidel Foundation, |
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University
education |
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Ph.D. in
Economics |
University of Bonn, |
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M.A. in
Economics |
University of Bonn, |
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Graduate
Studies |
University of Toulouse, |
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B.A. in
Economics (equivalent) |
University of Passau, |
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B.A. in
Philosophy (equivalent) |
University of
Passau, |
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Presentations
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Numerous
presentations at international conferences and Universities |
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Teaching and lecturing
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Teaching Fall 2006, The Economics of
the European Union, University of Pittsburgh Fall 2005, The Economics of
the European Union, University of
Pittsburgh Numerous lectures |
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