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Dr.
Guntram B. Wolff Welcome to my personal homepage I work as
an economist for the European Commission’s Economic and Financial Affairs' DG
in Areas of expertise: euro area
economy and governance, Germany, macroeconomics, fiscal policy, sovereign
bond markets, political economy, applied time series and panel econometrics. Contact:
guntram.wolff |
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Publications
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Recent
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Diverging trends in money demand and housing across the Eurozone, (with P.
van den Noord and R. Setzer), VoxEu.org, May 15.
2010. -
Banking and Sovereign Risk in the euro area, (with Stefan Gerlach and Alexander
Schulz), CEPR DP 7833, Deutsche
Bundesbank DP 9/2010, preliminary ECB
conference version. -
Heterogeneity in money holdings across euro area countries: the role of
housing, (with Ralph Setzer and Paul van den Noord), European
Economy - Economic Paper 407, Deutsche
Bundesbank DP 4/2010. see also European
Economy Research Letter -
External rebalancing is not just an exporters’ story: real exchange rates,
the non-tradable sector and the euro, (with Eric Ruscher), European
Economy-Economic Paper No 375, 2009. -
Money demand in the euro area: new insights from disaggregated data, (with
Ralph Setzer), European
Economy-Economic Paper No 373, 2009. MPRA 17483 Journals
12.
The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in 11.
The German sub-national government bond market: structure, determinants of
yield spreads and 10.
Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia in EMU (with
Mark Hallerberg), Public Choice, 136(3-4), 379-396, 2008. (Springer online)
working paper: Bundesbank
DP 35-2006. 9. The effectiveness of subsidies
revisited: accounting for wage and employment effects in business R&D
(with Volker Reinthaler), Research Policy, 37, 1403-1412, 2008. (sciencedirect). 8.
Moral hazard and bail-out in fiscal federations: Evidence for the German
Länder (with Kirsten Heppke-Falk), Kyklos
– International Review for Social Sciences, 61(3), 425-46, 2008. (article
online), working paper: Bundesbank DP 07-2007. See also Bundesbank
monthly bulletin article of October 2007. 7. Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal transparency
and sovereign risk premia (with Kerstin Bernoth), Scottish Journal of Political
Economy, 55(4), 465-87, 2008. (article
online), working paper versions Bundesbank DP 19-2006, cesifo WP 1732, DNB working
paper 103, 2006. 6.
Fiscal Crises in U.S. Cities: Structural and Non-structural Causes, ICFAI
Journal of Public Finance, VI(1), February 2008, working paper: ZEI Working Paper B04-28. 5. Foreign direct investment in
the enlarged EU: do taxes matter and to what extent?, Open Economies
Review 18(3), 327-46, 2007. (Springer online),
working paper version Bundesbank
DP 13-2006, online
appendix. 4. What do deficits tell us about
debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU
(with Jürgen von Hagen), Journal of Banking and Finance,
volume 30 (12), 3259-3279, 2006. (sciencedirect),
working paper version: Bundesbank
DP 38-2004, CEPR DP4759,
2004; The article was discussed by Wolfgang Munchau in the Financial Times, December 13, 2004 and by
Sophie Büning in the Financial Times Deutschland, December 6, 2004. 3.
Measuring tax burdens in 2.
A Compromise Estimate of German Net National Product 1851-1913 and its
Implications for Growth and Business Cycles (with Carsten Burhop), Journal
of Economic History, volume 65 (3), p. 613-657, 2005. This research was discussed by
Jennifer Lachman in the Handelsblatt
on May 15, 2006, p.11 (pdf). 1. Data and method choice and
their relevance for business cycle history; Datenwahl, Methodenwahl und ihre
Bedeutung für die Konjunkturgeschichte
(German with English
abstract, with Carsten Burhop), Vierteljahrschrift für Sozial- und
Wirtschaftsgeschichte, volume 91 (2), 2004. (abstract). Chapters
in books and reports
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Competitiveness and current account divergences in the euro area, in:
Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels,
Vol. 9(1), (with E. Ruscher and M. Zogala), 2010 (pdf).
The Quarterly Report is discussed
in the NZZ,
the Handelsblatt,
and in the Japanese Economist. Long
version of the report is published as “Surveillance
of intra-euro-area competitiveness and imbalances”, European Economy
1/2010. The Eurogroup concluded on the issue on March 15, 2010 (word). -
Underlying domestic macroeconomic imbalances fuelled current account
deficits, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG
ECFIN, -
Anatomy of current account surpluses in the euro area, in: Quarterly Report
on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 9(1), 2010 (pdf).
The article is discussed by Ruth
Berschens in the Handelsblatt
Nr. 100 of 27.05.2010 page 8. - Global
current-account imbalances and implications for the euro area, in: Quarterly
Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 8(3),
(with M. Giorgio Marrano), October 2009 (pdf). - Competitiveness developments in the euro area, in:
Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels,
Vol. 8(1), (with N. Balta and A. Turrini), March, 2009 (pdf). - Bank lending and
transmission to the real economy (with G. Tournemire), in: Quarterly Report
on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Volume 7 (4), December, 2008
(pdf).
- Discussion of “European
Productivity Gaps: Is R&D the Solution?”, in: “Competitiveness and Growth
in Europe: Lessons and Policy Implications for the Lisbon Strategy”, Susanne
Mundschenk, Michael Stierle, Ulrike Stierle - von Schütz and Iulia Traistaru
(eds.), Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK; Northhampton, MA, USA, 2006. - Regional Specialization
and Employment Dynamics in Transition Countries (with Iulia
Traistaru) in: "Emerging Market Economies and European Economic Integration",
Scott Hacker and Börje Johansson (eds.), Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, -
Adjustment Capability of Regional Labour Markets (with Thiess Büttner, Vera
Gacs, Peter Huber, Anna Iara, and Iulia Traistaru), report to the European
Commission, 2003 (pdf). Working papers
-
Banking and Sovereign Risk in the euro area, (with Stefan Gerlach and Alexander
Schulz), CEPR DP 7833, Deutsche
Bundesbank DP 9/2010, preliminary ECB
conference version. -
Heterogeneity in money holdings across euro area countries: the role of
housing, (with Ralph Setzer and Paul van den Noord), European
Economy - Economic Paper 407, Deutsche
Bundesbank DP 4/2010. -
External rebalancing is not just an exporters’ story: real exchange rates,
the non-tradable sector and the euro, (with Eric Ruscher), European
Economy-Economic Paper No 375, 2009. -
Money demand in the euro area: new insights from disaggregated data, (with
Ralph Setzer), European
Economy-Economic Paper No 373, 2009. MPRA 17483 -
Sovereign bond market integration:
the euro, trading platforms and financial crises, (with Alexander Schulz),
2009. MPRA 16900 -
Sovereign bond market integration:
the euro, trading platforms and globalization, (with Alexander Schulz), Bundesbank
DP 12-2008, European
Economy-Economic Paper No 332, (pdf)
2008. -
Testing for contemporary fiscal policy discretion with real time data (with
Ulf von Kalckreuth), Bundesbank DP 24-2007, 2007. significantly revised
version: Identifying discretionary fiscal policy reactions with real-time
data, September 2009 -
Does anticipation of government spending matter? The role of (non-) defense
spending (with Jörn Tenhofen) Bonn
Econ DP 12/2010 Older version: Does anticipation of
government spending matter? Evidence from an expectation augmented VAR, Bundesbank DP 14-2007, 2007. -
The German sub-national government
bond market: evolution, yield and liquidity, (with Alexander Schulz), Bundesbank
DP 6-2008, 2008. - Schuldenanstieg
und Haftungsausschluss im deutschen Föderalstaat: Zur Rolle des Moral Hazard,
Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability working paper,
2008. -
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National Accounting and the Business Cycle in Other
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Diverging trends in money demand and housing across the Eurozone, (with P.
van den Noord and R. Setzer), VoxEu.org, May 15,
2010. -
Budget institutions can reduce fiscal indiscipline, published at http://www.eurointelligence.com,
26.03.2007 -
Budget institutions to counteract fiscal indiscipline in - Aufschwung anno 1851? Zur
Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandprodukts in der Zeit 1851-1913, November 2006, (pdf). -
Is there a need to harmonize social policies in -
Research and Development in Europe: Implications for the -
Local Fiscal Crises in Federal Systems, ZEI report
12/13 2003, p.6. -
Estimating an Investment Function (with Susanne Mundschenk), 2001. -
The Effects of Public
Expenditure on Economic Growth, Diplomarbeit, http://ideas.repec.org/e/pwo44.html |
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CV
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Professional
experience |
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4/2008 – present |
Economist, DG ECFIN, European Commission |
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9/2004 – 4/2008 |
Economist,
Deutsche
Bundesbank |
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3/2005 – present |
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1/2000 – 8/2004 |
Research Fellow, Center
for European Integration Studies (ZEI),
University of Bonn |
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10/2002 – 11/2002 |
Visiting
researcher, University of Pittsburgh |
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Internships |
- European Central
Bank (ECB), - Inter-American
Development Bank (IADB), - Hermes Kreditversicherungs-AG,
Hamburg, Germany, - Hanns
Seidel Foundation, |
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University
education |
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Ph.D. in
Economics |
University of Bonn, |
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M.A. in
Economics |
University of Bonn, |
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Graduate
Studies |
University of Toulouse, |
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B.A. in
Economics (equivalent) |
University of Passau, |
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B.A. in Philosophy (equivalent) |
University of
Passau, |
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Presentations
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2010 -
Eliamap/Bruegel workshop, “Dealing with competitiveness”, agenda -
Sciences -
Brussels NCB Network Meeting “Surveillance of intra-euro-area competitiveness
and imbalances” 2009 -
EEA/ESEM, “Sovereign
bond market integration: the euro, trading platforms and financial crises”,
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EEA/ESEM, “Does
anticipation of government spending matter?”, -
European Commission, “The global and EU response to the economic crisis”, for
Canisius college -
European Commission, “Financial and economic crisis: the coordination of the
EU response“, for Münchener Journalistenschule -
European Commission, “The economic crisis and the EU response “, for
Verwaltungsakademie der Bayrische Staatskanzlei -
Vienna Institute of International Economics, “Current accounts, real exchange
rates and the role of non-tradable goods' and services' prices: is there a
euro area dimension?” -
ASSA meetings, 2008 -
Max Planck Institute for research on collective goods, -
European Commission, DYNREG workshop, “The role of public policy in fostering
innovation, competitiveness and growth – a discussion” -
ASSA meetings, -
Federal Reserve Bank, Cleveland: "Does anticipation of government
spending matter? Evidence from an expectation augmented VAR" -
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IMF: "Does anticipation of government spending matter? Evidence from an
expectation augmented VAR" -
Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin: "The German Sub-national government bond
market: evolution, yields, and market integration" 2007 -
ECB, -
DIW, -
Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, University Frankfurt, “Moral hazard und bail-out im deutschen
Föderalstaat”, program of symposium -
Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin, “Moral hazard and bail-out in fiscal
federations: evidence for the German Länder” -
Verein für Socialpolitik, München, “Moral hazard and bail-out in fiscal
federations: evidence for the German Länder” -
DFG workshop, -
Max Planck Institute for research on collective goods, -
EEA, -
XIth conference on macroeconomic analysis and international finance, -
ECB, 2006 -
ESRI, -
European Commission, DG ECFIN, “Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal
transparency and sovereign risk premia“ -
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ESEM, -
Bundesbank Research Council, “The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in -
X conference on macroeconomic analysis and international finance, -
X conference on macroeconomic analysis and international finance, -
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Dutch National Bank, “Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal
transparency and sovereign risk premia“ 2005 -
Bundesbank Research Council, “Foreign Direct Investment in the Enlarged EU:
Do taxes matter and to what extent?” -
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XI Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Croatian National Bank, “What do deficits
tell us about debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal
rules in the EU” -
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Bundesfinanzministerium, German Ministry of Finance, - Spring Meeting of Young
Economists (SMYE), -
International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington, “What do deficits tell us
about debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in
the EU” -
North American Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society, -
2004 -
Verein für Socialpolitik, -
INFER/ZEI, -
European Central Bank (ECB), “What do deficits tell us about debt? Empirical
evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU” -
Canadian Economic Association annual conference, "Fiscal Crises in U.S.
Cities: Structural and Non-structural Causes" - University of Münster,
"Lohn- und Beschäftigungseffekte von Forschungs- und
Entwicklungssubventionen für Unternehmen" -
Royal Economic Society annual conference, "Fiscal Crises in U.S. Cities:
Structural and Non-structural Causes" - Bundesbank, Frankfurt,
"Lohn- und Beschäftigungseffekte von Forschungs- und
Entwicklungssubventionen für Unternehmen" 2003 -
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ZEW, Joanneum research, conference on “Evaluation of Government Funded
R&D Activities”, -
European Regional Studies Association’ annual conference, -
Workshop on Regional Labor Market Adjustment in Accession Candidate
Countries, -
2002 -
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15th European Advanced Studies Institute in Regional Science, |
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Teaching and lecturing
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Teaching Fall 2006, The Economics of
the European Union, University of
Pittsburgh Fall 2005, The Economics of
the European Union, University of
Pittsburgh Lectures 2010 - "The
euro and the crisis: developing the governance of the euro area", - "The
euro and the crisis: developing the governance of the euro area",
Network of Germans at the EU institutions, Permanent Representation of the
Federal Republic of Germany at the EU - “The EU
response to the crisis – implications for governance”, for - “The crisis
and the euro: implications for the governance of the euro area”, for Young
European federalists - “Improving
the governance of the euro area in light of the crisis” for Canada-Europe
transatlantic dialogue -
“Surveillance of intra-euro-area competitiveness and imbalances”, for
Brussels NCB Network Meeting - German
sub-national and European fiscal policy governance – what lessons to be drawn
in light of the crisis?, for Hertie School of Governance, 2010 2009 - The global economic crisis and
implications for - The European policy response to
the crisis, for students from Europa
Kolleg Hamburg - The
economic crisis and the EU response, for students of Executive Master of
Public Management, - EMU@10:
Macroeconomic imbalances and the financial crisis, DG ECFIN seminar for euro
area Journalists - The EU and
the global financial crisis, for students of Master in International
Relations from - The global
and EU response to the economic crisis, for MBA students of Canisius college 2008 - Financial
and economic crisis: the coordination of the EU response, for Münchener
Journalistenschule. - The economic crisis and the EU response, for Verwaltungsakademie
der Bayrischen Staatskanzlei. 2007 - Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability,
University Frankfurt, “Moral hazard
und bail-out im deutschen Föderalstaat”, program
of symposium 2006 - 2005 - - - Bundesfinanzministerium, German Ministry of
Finance, |
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