Guntram B. Wolff
Welcome to my personal homepage
I am the deputy director of Bruegel, the European think tank contributing to economic policy making. I am also a member of the French prime minister's Conseil d'analyse économique. Currently, I am teaching at Solvay Business School of ULB and I am serving on the advisory board of the European Studies Center of Corvinus university. My research focuses on the European economy and its governance, on fiscal policy, global finance, Germany and France.
I joined Bruegel from the European Commission, where I worked on the euro area and the reform of its governance. Prior to joining the Commission I was at the Deutsche Bundesbank, where I coordinated the research team on fiscal policy. I also worked as an adviser to the International Monetary Fund. I hold a PhD from the University of Bonn, studied economics in Bonn, Toulouse, Pittsburgh and Passau, taught economics at the University of Pittsburgh and published numerous papers in leading academic journals as well as authored or edited three books. I am fluent in German, English, French and have good notions of Bulgarian and Spanish. My columns and policy work is published and cited in leading international media such as the Financial Times, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, El Pais, La Stampa, FAZ, NZZ, SZ, Handelsblatt, BBC, ZDF, WDR, Die Welt, CNBC and others.
My declaration of interests can be found here.
Areas of expertise: European economy and governance,
Contact: guntram.wolff 
bruegel.org
Publications
Recent
- Europe's growth problem (and what to do about it) (with Zsolt Darvas and Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel Policy Brief 2013/03, prepared for the informal ECOFIN Meeting in Dublin, April 2013.
- Should non-euro area countries join the single supervisory mechanism? (with Zsolt Darvas), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/6
- From supervision to resolution: next steps on the road to European Banking Union (with Nicolas Véron), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/4, based on a briefing for the European Parliament, also published as a PIIE policy brief.
- Options for a Euro area fiscal capacity (with Jean Pisani-Ferry and Erkki Vihriälä), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/1, based on briefing for European Parliament (pdf)
- A budget for Europe's monetary union, Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/22
- Testimony to Bundestag Haushaltsausschuss on the German implementation of the fiscal compact (in German), (pdf)
- On the effectiveness and legitimacy of EU economic policies (with Mark Hallerberg and Benedicta Marzinotto), Bruegel Policy Brief 2012/04.
- An assessment of the European Semester (with Mark Hallerberg and Benedicta Marzinotto), Report to the European Parliament, 1 October 2012.
- The fiscal implications of a banking union (with Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel Policy Brief 2012/2, paper prepared for informal ECOFIN meeting in Nicosia, Cyprus, 14 September 2012.
- What kind of European banking union? (with Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir, Nicolas Véron), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/12.
- The role of the ECB in financial assistance: some early observations (with Jean Pisan-Ferry and Silvia Merler), European Parliament Briefing, June 2012
- Arithmetics is absolute: euro area adjustment, Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/09.
- Propping up Europe? (with Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/07, briefing prepared for the monetary dialogue of the European Parliament.
- The messy rebuilding of Europe (with Jean Pisani-Ferry and André Sapir), Bruegel Policy Brief 2012/01, prepared for the informal ECOFIN in Copenhagen 30 March.
- Are banks affected by their holdings of government debt? (with Chiara Angeloni), Bruegel Working Paper 2012/07
- Challenges for the Euro area and implications for Latvia, Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/ 05, briefing prepared for testimony at the Latvian Parliament.
- Corporate balance sheet adjustment: stylized facts, causes and consequences (with Eric Ruscher), Bruegel Working Paper, February 2012, also see the VoxEU column.
- The debt challenge in Europe (with Alan Ahearne), Bruegel Working Paper, January 2012.
- The logic of one currency only having one finance minister, Parliamentary Brief, 9 January 2012.
- Rating agencies and sovereign credit risk assessment (with Nicolas Véron), Bruegel Policy Contribution for European Parliament hearing, December 2011.
- What kind of fiscal union?, (with Benedicta Marzinotto and André Sapir), Bruegel Policy Brief, 23 November 2011.
- An evaluation of IMF surveillance of the euro area, (with Jean Pisani-Ferry and André Sapir), Bruegel Blueprint, Volume XIV
- Is recent bank stress really driven by the sovereign debt crisis?, Bruegel Policy Contribution 12/2011 (see also my VoxEU column on it as well as Stephanie Flanders blog and FT’s money supply blog)
- Rules and Risk in the euro area, (with Anna Iara), Bruegel Working Paper 10/2011.
- Changing of the guard: huge challenges ahead for the new ECB president, Bruegel Policy Contribution for European Parliament Hearing, September 2011.
- How effective and legitimate is the European Semester? Increasing the role of the European Parliament, (with Mark Hallerberg and Benedicta Marzinotto), Bruegel Working Paper 09/2011.
- An action plan for Europe’s leaders, (with Benedicta Marzinotto and Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel policy contribution, 20 July 2011
- The euro area’s macroeconomic balancing act, Bruegel policy contribution, 18 May 2011
- Banking and Sovereign Risk in the euro area, (with Stefan Gerlach and Alexander Schulz), CEPR DP 7833, Deutsche Bundesbank DP 9/2010, The paper is discussed in the German newspaper Börsenzeitung of 27. August 2010. Here is an earlier ECB conference version.
Journals
16. The euro area crisis and policy lessons (with Chiara Angeloni and Silvia Merler), The International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs, vol 47(4), 2012 (link).
15. Money demand in the euro area: new insights from disaggregated data, (with Ralph Setzer), International Economics and Economic Policy, 2012, (link) older working paper version European Economy-Economic Paper No 373, MPRA 17483
14. Identifying discretionary fiscal policy reactions with real time data (with Ulf von Kalckreuth), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2011 (link) older working paper version Bundesbank DP 24-2007.
13. Heterogeneity in money holdings across euro area countries: the role of housing, (with Ralph Setzer and Paul van den Noord), European Journal of Political Economy (link), older version: European Economy - Economic Paper 407, Deutsche Bundesbank DP 4/2010. see also:VoxEu.org, May 15. 2010 and European Economy Research Letter
12. The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in
11. The German sub-national government bond market: structure, determinants of yield spreads and
10. Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia in EMU (with Mark Hallerberg), Public Choice, 136(3-4), 379-396, 2008.(Springer online) working paper: Bundesbank DP 35-2006.
9. The effectiveness of subsidies revisited: accounting for wage and employment effects in business R&D (with Volker Reinthaler), Research Policy, 37, 1403-1412, 2008.(sciencedirect).
8. Moral hazard and bail-out in fiscal federations: Evidence for the German Länder (with Kirsten Heppke-Falk), Kyklos – International Review for Social Sciences, 61(3), 425-46, 2008.(article online), working paper: Bundesbank DP 07-2007. See also Bundesbank monthly bulletin article of October 2007.
7. Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal transparency and sovereign risk premia (with Kerstin Bernoth),Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 55(4), 465-87, 2008. (article online), working paper versions Bundesbank DP 19-2006, cesifo WP 1732, DNB working paper 103, 2006.
6. Fiscal Crises in U.S. Cities: Structural and Non-structural Causes, ICFAIJournal of Public Finance, VI(1), February 2008,working paper: ZEI Working Paper B04-28.
5. Foreign direct investment in the enlarged EU: do taxes matter and to what extent?, Open Economies Review 18(3), 327-46, 2007.(Springer online), working paper version Bundesbank DP 13-2006, online appendix.
4. What do deficits tell us about debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU (with Jürgen von Hagen), Journal of Banking and Finance, volume 30 (12), 3259-3279, 2006.(sciencedirect), working paper version:Bundesbank DP 38-2004, CEPR DP4759, 2004; The article was discussed by Wolfgang Munchau in the Financial Times, December 13, 2004 and by Sophie Büning in the Financial Times Deutschland, December 6, 2004.
3. Measuring tax burdens in
2. A Compromise Estimate of German Net National Product 1851-1913 and its Implications for Growth and Business Cycles (with Carsten Burhop), Journal of Economic History, volume 65 (3), p. 613-657, 2005.This research was discussed by Jennifer Lachman in the Handelsblatt on May 15, 2006, p.11 (pdf).
1. Data and method choice and their relevance for business cycle history; Datenwahl, Methodenwahl und ihre Bedeutung für die Konjunkturgeschichte (German with English abstract, with Carsten Burhop), Vierteljahrschrift für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte, volume 91 (2), 2004. (abstract).
Books
- Transatlantic Economic Challenges in an Era of Growing Multipolarity, Peterson Institute for International Economics Special Report 22, edited by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Nicolas Véron and Guntram B. Wolff, July 2012, ISBN paper 978-0-88132-645-1 (PIIE link)
- An evaluation of IMF surveillance of the euro area, (with Jean Pisani-Ferry and André Sapir), Bruegel Blueprint, Volume XIV
Chapters in books and reports
- Global imbalances, in: "Economic crisis in Europe: causes, consequences and responses" by Paul van den Noord and Istvan P. Szekely (eds.), Barnes and Nobel, 2011, (with Eric Ruscher).
- Balance sheet adjustment in the corporate sector, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 9(3), (with E. Ruscher), 2010 (pdf).
- Competitiveness and current account divergences in the euro area, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 9(1), (with E. Ruscher and M. Zogala), 2010 (pdf). The Quarterly Report is discussed in the NZZ, the Handelsblatt, and in the Japanese Economist. Long version of the report is published as “Surveillance of intra-euro-area competitiveness and imbalances”, European Economy 1/2010. The Eurogroup concluded on the issue on March 15, 2010 (word). The article is discussed by Ruth Berschens in the Handelsblatt Nr. 100 of 27.05.2010 page 8.
- Underlying domestic macroeconomic imbalances fuelled current account deficits, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN,
- Anatomy of current account surpluses in the euro area, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 9(1), 2010 (pdf). The article is discussed by Ruth Berschens in the Handelsblatt Nr. 100 of 27.05.2010 page 8.
- Global current-account imbalances and implications for the euro area, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 8(3), (with M. Giorgio Marrano), October 2009 (pdf).
- Competitiveness developments in the euro area, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 8(1), (with N. Balta and A. Turrini), March, 2009 (pdf).
- Bank lending and transmission to the real economy (with G. Tournemire), in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Volume 7 (4), December, 2008 (pdf).
- Discussion of “European Productivity Gaps: Is R&D the Solution?”, in: “Competitiveness and Growth in Europe: Lessons and Policy Implications for the Lisbon Strategy”, Susanne Mundschenk, Michael Stierle, Ulrike Stierle - von Schütz and Iulia Traistaru (eds.), Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK; Northhampton, MA, USA, 2006.
- Regional Specialization and Employment Dynamics in Transition Countries (with Iulia Traistaru) in: "Emerging Market Economies and European Economic Integration", Scott Hacker and Börje Johansson (eds.), Edward Elgar, Cheltenham,
- Adjustment Capability of Regional Labour Markets (with Thiess Büttner, Vera Gacs, Peter Huber, Anna Iara, and Iulia Traistaru), report to the European Commission, 2003 (pdf).
Working papers
- Are banks affected by their holdings of government debt? (with Chiara Angeloni), Bruegel Working Paper 2012/07
- Corporate balance sheet adjustment: stylized facts, causes and consequences (with Eric Ruscher), Bruegel Working Paper, February 2012, also see the VoxEU column.
- The debt challenge in Europe (with Alan Ahearne), Bruegel Working Paper, January 2012.
- How effective and legitimate is the European Semester? Increasing the role of the European Parliament, (with Mark Hallerberg and Benedicta Marzinotto), Bruegel Workling Paper 09/2011.
- Rules and Risk in the euro area, (with Anna Iara), Bruegel Working Paper 10/2011, older version: Rules and risk in the euro area: does rules-based national fiscal governance contain sovereign bond spreads?, European Economy - Economic Paper 433
- Banking and Sovereign Risk in the euro area, (with Stefan Gerlach and Alexander Schulz), CEPR DP 7833, Deutsche Bundesbank DP 9/2010, preliminary ECB conference version.
- External rebalancing is not just an exporters’ story: real exchange rates, the non-tradable sector and the euro, (with Eric Ruscher), European Economy-Economic Paper No 375, 2009.
- Sovereign bond market integration: the euro, trading platforms and financial crises, (with Alexander Schulz), 2009. MPRA 16900older version is “sovereign bond market integration: the euro, trading platforms and globalization, Bundesbank DP 12-2008, European Economy-Economic Paper No 332, (pdf) 2008.
- Does anticipation of government spending matter? The role of (non-) defense spending (with Jörn Tenhofen) Bonn Econ DP 12/2010Older version: Does anticipation of government spending matter? Evidence from an expectation augmented VAR, Bundesbank DP 14-2007, 2007.
- Schuldenanstieg und Haftungsausschluss im deutschen Föderalstaat: Zur Rolle des Moral Hazard, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability working paper, 2008.
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- National Accounting and the Business Cycle in
Policy Contributions and Briefs
- The fiscal implications of a banking union (with Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel Policy Brief 2012/2, paper prepared for informal ECOFIN meeting in Nicosia, Cyprus, 14 September 2012.
- What kind of European banking union? (with Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir, Nicolas Véron), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/12.
- Arithmetics is absolute: euro area adjustment, Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/09.
- Propping up Europe? (with Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/07, briefing prepared for the monetary dialogue of the European Parliament.
- The messy rebuilding of Europe (with Jean Pisani-Ferry and André Sapir), Bruegel Policy Brief 2012/01, prepared for the informal ECOFIN in Copenhagen 30 March.
- Challenges for the Euro area and implications for Latvia, Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/ 05, briefing prepared for testimony at the Latvian Parliament.
- Rating agencies and sovereign credit risk assessment (with Nicolas Véron), Bruegel Policy Contribution for European Parliament hearing, December 2011.
- What kind of fiscal union?, (with Benedicta Marzinotto and André Sapir), Bruegel Policy Brief, 23 November 2011.
- Is recent bank stress really driven by the sovereign debt crisis?, Bruegel Policy Contribution 12/2011 (see also my VoxEU column on it as well as Stephanie Flanders blog and FT’s money supply blog)
- Changing of the guard: huge challenges ahead for the new ECB president, Bruegel Policy Contribution for European Parliament Hearing, September 2011.
- An action plan for Europe’s leaders, (with Benedicta Marzinotto and Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel policy contribution, 20 July 2011
- The euro area’s macroeconomic balancing act, Bruegel policy contribution, 18 May 2011
Selected columns/other, also see Bruegel Blog
- A new weapon to tackle the crisis? On the Euro area fiscal capacity, Bruegel, El Pais and other outlets, October 17
- A five step guide to European Banking Union (with Jean Pisani-Ferry), Financial Times A List, Bruegel, September 17
- ESM, Ja aber..., Bruegel, 12 September 2012
- Emergency on funding costs for sovereigns, financial and non-financial corporations, Bruegel, 26 July 2012
- Are all euro summits the same? Market perceptions before and after” (with Chiara Angeloni), Bruegel, 11 July 2012.
- Organising bank supervision and resolution in Europe, Bruegel, Gazeta Wyborzca, Kathimerini (GR), Estrategia (Chile), Vecer (Slovenia), CFO Insight, Linkiesta and others 5 July 2012.
- Yet another “break-or-make” summit, Bruegel, 29 June 2012.
- Subordination is not the main issue in Spain, Bruegel, 18 June 2012, also published in El Economista.
- A banking union for growth, Bruegel, 12 June 2012 also published in La Croix and Handelsblatt
- The agreement on Spain’s bank – problem solved?, Bruegel, 11 June 2012.
- Italian and German adjustment in the eyes of the Commission, Bruegel, 30 May 2012.
- Em busca do equilíbrio perdido”, O Globo, 12 May 2012.
- Different Demand”, Australian Financial Review, 11 May 2012.
- Will the elections in Europe change economic policy?, Bruegel, 9 May 2012.
- How should the IMF spend 430bn?, Bruegel comment also published in Handelsblatt, Les Echos and El País 25 April 2012.
- Sovereign portfolios or banks’ location: what channels sovereign risk into banking systems (with Chiara Angeloni), VoxEu 19 April 2012.
- LTRO, interbank stress and banks’ stock prices: a conundrum? (with Chiara Angeloni), Bruegel, 28 March 2012.
- Spain and the fiscal compact, Bruegel comment, also published on eurointelligence and El País, 8 March 2012
- Collateral is key for target debate, Bruegel comment, 7 March 2012
- A Greek deal – the end of the eurozone crisis?, Bruegel comment also published in El Economista, 21 February 2012.
- How to deal with Europe’s debt challenge, Bruegel comment, also published on eurointelligence and La Repubblica, 17 February 2012.
- Growth in Europe: don’t forget the long-run, Bruegel comment, 26 January 2012.
- The logic of one currency only having one finance minister, Parliamentary Brief, 9 January 2012.
- Should we go back on Greek PSI?, Bruegel comment published in Kathimerini, 10 January 2012.
- The last summit?, Bruegel comment also published in El País, 14 December 2012.
- A German fiscal union?, Bruegel comment also published in El Economista, 5 December 2011
- (Com-)Mission to Rome or what a euro area finance ministry means, Bruegel comment, 16 November 2011.
- Rules and risk: structural reforms help, Bruegel comment published also in El País, 14 November 2011.
- TheGreek demos vs. the Greek demons, (with Shahin Vallée), Bruegel comment, 3 November 2011.
- How to restore trust in the ECB, comment in Financial Times, 1 November, 2011.
- A glass half full, comment on the Euro Summit 27 October 2011.
- Why we should listen to Tim Geithner, op-ed, September 2011.
- How European funds can help Greece grow, (with Benedicta Marzinotto and Jean Pisani-Ferry), comment, Financial Times, p.8, July 28, 2011.
- EIP 1.0: High time to address macroeconomic imbalances, eurointelligence, 7 July 2011, La Repubblica 8 March 2012.
- Fledgling referee of systemic risk (with Silvia Merler), published in Financial World, July 2011
- Lack of collateral will stop euro flow, letter to Financial Times, 8 June 2011 (pdf).
- ESRB should act on sovereign risk, op-ed published on 5 May 2011 at Bruegel, eurointelligence, FTD and La Repubblica.
- Sovereign risk: the impact of national numerical fiscal rules, (with Anna Iara) Voxeu.org, 20 January 2011 link. The column was quoted by eurointelligence’s news-brief of January 20. The working paper is published here: European Economy - Economic Paper 433
- Budget institutions can reduce fiscal indiscipline, published at http://www.eurointelligence.com, 26.03.2007
- Budget institutions to counteract fiscal indiscipline in
- Aufschwung anno 1851? Zur Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandprodukts in der Zeit 1851-1913, November 2006, (pdf).
- Is there a need to harmonize social policies in
- Research and Development in Europe: Implications for the
- Local Fiscal Crises in Federal Systems, ZEI report 12/13 2003, p.6.
- Estimating an Investment Function (with Susanne Mundschenk), 2001.
- The Effects of Public Expenditure on Economic Growth, Diplomarbeit,
http://ideas.repec.org/e/pwo44.html
CV
Professional experience
2011 – present
2008 – 2011
Economist, DG ECFIN, European Commission
2004 – 2008
Economist, Deutsche Bundesbank
2005 – present
2000 – 2004
Research Fellow, Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI), University of Bonn
2002
Visiting researcher, University of Pittsburgh
Internships
- European Central Bank (ECB),
- Inter-American Development Bank (IADB),
- Hermes Kreditversicherungs-AG, Hamburg, Germany,
- Hanns Seidel Foundation,
University education
Ph.D. in Economics
University of Bonn,
M.A. in Economics
University of Bonn,
Graduate Studies
University of Toulouse,
B.A. in Economics
(equivalent)
University of Passau,
B.A. in Philosophy
(equivalent)
University of Passau,
Presentations
Numerous presentations at international conferences and Universities
Teaching and lecturing
Teaching
Fall 2012, European Economic Integration, Solvay Business School of Université Libre de Bruxelles
Fall 2006, The Economics of the European Union, University of Pittsburgh
Fall 2005, The Economics of the European Union, University of Pittsburgh
Numerous lectures