|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
Dr.
Guntram B. Wolff Welcome to my personal homepage I am the deputy
director of Bruegel,
the European think tank contributing to the quality of European economic
policy making. Previously,
I worked for the European Commission's DG for Economic and Financial Affairs.
My work at ECFIN focused on the macroeconomics of the euro area and the
reform of euro area governance. Prior to joining the Commission I was an
economist in the economics and research departments of the Deutsche Bundesbank, where I coordinated the research group on
fiscal policy. I hold a PhD from the Areas of expertise: euro area
economy and governance, Contact: guntram.wolff |
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Publications
|
|
|||
|
|
Recent
- A
German fiscal union?, Bruegel comment also
published in El Economista, 5 December 2011 - What
kind of fiscal union?, (with Benedicta
Marzinotto and André Sapir), Bruegel
Policy Brief, 23 November 2011. - (Com-)Mission to Rome or what a euro area finance ministry
means, Bruegel comment, 16 November 2011. - Rules
and risk: structural reforms help, Bruegel
comment published also in El País, 14 November 2011. - The Greek demos vs.
the Greek demons, (with Shahin Vallée), Bruegel comment, 3
November 2011. - How
to restore trust in the ECB, comment in Financial
Times, 1 November, 2011. - An
evaluation of IMF surveillance of the euro area, (with Jean Pisani-Ferry
and André Sapir), Bruegel Blueprint, Volume XIV - A
glass half full, comment on the Euro Summit 27 October 2011. - Is
recent bank stress really driven by the sovereign debt crisis?, Bruegel Policy Contribution 12/2011 (see also my VoxEU
column on it as well as Stephanie Flanders blog
and FT’s money supply blog) - Rules
and Risk in the euro area, (with Anna Iara), Bruegel Working Paper 10/2011. .
Bloomberg TV, Leveraged EFSF would calm markets, Youtube-Link. - Why
we should listen to Tim Geithner, op-ed,
September 2011. - Changing
of the guard: huge challenges ahead for the new ECB president, Bruegel Policy Contribution for European
Parliament Hearing, September 2011. - How
effective and legitimate is the European Semester? Increasing the role of the
European Parliament, (with Mark Hallerberg and Benedicta Marzinotto), Bruegel Workling Paper 09/2011. - How
European funds can help Greece grow, (with Benedicta
Marzinotto and Jean Pisani-Ferry), comment,
Financial Times, p.8, July 28, 2011. - An
action plan for Europe’s leaders, (with Benedicta
Marzinotto and Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel policy contribution, 20 July 2011 - EIP
1.0: High time to address macroeconomic imbalances, eurointelligence,
7 July 2011 - Fledgling
referee of systemic risk (with Silvia Merler),
published in Financial World, July 2011 - Lack
of collateral will stop euro flow, letter to Financial Times, 8 June 2011 (pdf). - The
euro area’s macroeconomic balancing act, Bruegel
policy contribution, 18 May 2011 - ESRB
should act on sovereign risk, op-ed published on 5 May 2011 at Bruegel, eurointelligence, FTD
and La Republica. - Sovereign
risk: the impact of national numerical fiscal rules, (with Anna Iara) Voxeu.org, 20 January 2011 link. The column was quoted by eurointelligence’s news-brief
of January 20. The working paper is published here: European
Economy - Economic Paper 433 -
Balance sheet adjustment in the corporate sector, in: Quarterly Report on the
Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 9(3),
(with E. Ruscher), 2010 (pdf). -
Banking and Sovereign Risk in the euro area, (with Stefan Gerlach
and Alexander Schulz), CEPR
DP 7833, Deutsche
Bundesbank DP 9/2010, The paper is
discussed in the German newspaper Börsenzeitung of 27. August 2010. Here is an earlier ECB
conference version. Journals
14.
Identifying discretionary fiscal policy reactions with real time data (with
Ulf von Kalckreuth), Journal of Money, Credit and
Banking, 2011 (link)
older working paper version Bundesbank DP 24-2007. 13. Heterogeneity in money
holdings across euro area countries: the role of housing, (with Ralph Setzer and Paul van den Noord),
European
Journal of Political Economy (link),
older version: European
Economy - Economic Paper 407, Deutsche
Bundesbank DP 4/2010. see
also: VoxEu.org, May 15. 2010
and European
Economy Research Letter 12.
The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in 11.
The German sub-national government bond market: structure, determinants of
yield spreads and 10.
Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia
in EMU (with Mark Hallerberg), Public Choice,
136(3-4), 379-396, 2008. (Springer online)
working paper: Bundesbank DP 35-2006. 9. The effectiveness of subsidies
revisited: accounting for wage and employment effects in business R&D
(with Volker Reinthaler), Research Policy,
37, 1403-1412, 2008. (sciencedirect). 8.
Moral hazard and bail-out in fiscal federations: Evidence for the German Länder (with Kirsten Heppke-Falk),
Kyklos – International Review for Social Sciences,
61(3), 425-46, 2008. (article online), working paper: Bundesbank DP 07-2007. See also Bundesbank monthly bulletin article of October 2007.
7. Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal
transparency and sovereign risk premia (with
Kerstin Bernoth), Scottish Journal of Political
Economy, 55(4), 465-87, 2008. (article online), working paper versions Bundesbank DP 19-2006, cesifo
WP 1732, DNB working
paper 103, 2006. 6.
Fiscal Crises in U.S. Cities: Structural and Non-structural Causes, ICFAI
Journal of Public Finance, VI(1),
February 2008, working
paper: ZEI Working
Paper B04-28. 5. Foreign direct investment in
the enlarged EU: do taxes matter and to what extent?, Open Economies
Review 18(3), 327-46, 2007. (Springer online),
working paper version Bundesbank DP 13-2006, online
appendix. 4. What do deficits tell us about
debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU
(with Jürgen von Hagen), Journal
of Banking and Finance, volume 30 (12), 3259-3279, 2006. (sciencedirect),
working paper version: Bundesbank DP 38-2004, CEPR DP4759,
2004; The article was discussed by Wolfgang Munchau
in the Financial Times, December 13, 2004
and by Sophie Büning in the Financial
Times Deutschland, December 6, 2004. 3.
Measuring tax burdens in 2.
A Compromise Estimate of German Net National Product 1851-1913 and its
Implications for Growth and Business Cycles (with Carsten
Burhop), Journal of Economic History,
volume 65 (3), p. 613-657, 2005. This research was discussed by Jennifer Lachman
in the Handelsblatt
on May 15, 2006, p.11 (pdf). 1.
Data and method choice and their relevance for business cycle history; Datenwahl, Methodenwahl und ihre Bedeutung für die Konjunkturgeschichte (German
with English abstract, with Carsten Burhop), Vierteljahrschrift
für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte, volume 91 (2), 2004.
(abstract). Chapters
in books and reports
-
Balance sheet adjustment in the corporate sector, in: Quarterly Report on the
Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 9(3),
(with E. Ruscher), 2010 (pdf). -
Competitiveness and current account divergences in the euro area, in:
Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels,
Vol. 9(1), (with E. Ruscher and M. Zogala), 2010 (pdf). The Quarterly Report is discussed in the NZZ,
the Handelsblatt, and in the Japanese Economist. Long version of the
report is published as “Surveillance
of intra-euro-area competitiveness and imbalances”, European Economy
1/2010. The Eurogroup concluded on the issue on
March 15, 2010 (word).
The article is discussed by Ruth Berschens in the Handelsblatt Nr. 100 of 27.05.2010 page 8. -
Underlying domestic macroeconomic imbalances fuelled current account
deficits, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG
ECFIN, -
Anatomy of current account surpluses in the euro area, in: Quarterly Report
on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 9(1), 2010 (pdf). The article is discussed by Ruth Berschens
in the Handelsblatt Nr. 100 of 27.05.2010 page 8. - Global
current-account imbalances and implications for the euro area, in: Quarterly
Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 8(3),
(with M. Giorgio Marrano), October 2009 (pdf). - Competitiveness developments in the euro area, in:
Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol.
8(1), (with N. Balta and A. Turrini),
March, 2009 (pdf). - Bank lending and
transmission to the real economy (with G. Tournemire),
in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Volume
7 (4), December, 2008 (pdf). - Discussion of “European
Productivity Gaps: Is R&D the Solution?”, in: “Competitiveness and Growth
in Europe: Lessons and Policy Implications for the Lisbon Strategy”, Susanne Mundschenk, Michael Stierle,
Ulrike Stierle - von Schütz
and Iulia Traistaru (eds.), Edward Elgar,
Cheltenham, UK; Northhampton, MA, USA, 2006. - Regional Specialization and
Employment Dynamics in Transition Countries (with Iulia
Traistaru) in: "Emerging Market Economies and
European Economic Integration", Scott Hacker and Börje
Johansson (eds.), Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, -
Adjustment Capability of Regional Labour Markets
(with Thiess Büttner, Vera Gacs,
Peter Huber, Anna Iara, and Iulia Traistaru), report to the European Commission, 2003 (pdf). Working papers
- How
effective and legitimate is the European Semester? Increasing the role of the
European Parliament, (with Mark Hallerberg and Benedicta Marzinotto), Bruegel Workling Paper 09/2011. - Rules
and Risk in the euro area, (with Anna Iara), Bruegel Working Paper 10/2011, older version: Rules and
risk in the euro area: does rules-based national fiscal governance contain
sovereign bond spreads?, European
Economy - Economic Paper 433 -
Banking and Sovereign Risk in the euro area, (with Stefan Gerlach
and Alexander Schulz), CEPR
DP 7833, Deutsche
Bundesbank DP 9/2010, preliminary
ECB
conference version. -
External rebalancing is not just an exporters’ story: real exchange rates,
the non-tradable sector and the euro, (with Eric Ruscher),
European
Economy-Economic Paper No 375, 2009. -
Money demand in the euro area: new insights from disaggregated data, (with
Ralph Setzer), European
Economy-Economic Paper No 373, 2009. MPRA 17483 -
Sovereign bond market integration:
the euro, trading platforms and financial crises, (with Alexander Schulz),
2009. MPRA 16900
older version is “sovereign bond
market integration: the euro, trading platforms and globalization, Bundesbank DP 12-2008, European
Economy-Economic Paper No 332, (pdf) 2008. -
Does anticipation of government spending matter? The role of (non-) defense
spending (with Jörn Tenhofen)
Bonn
Econ DP 12/2010 Older version: Does anticipation
of government spending matter? Evidence from an expectation augmented VAR, Bundesbank DP 14-2007, 2007. -
Schuldenanstieg und Haftungsausschluss im
deutschen Föderalstaat: Zur Rolle des Moral Hazard,
Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability working paper,
2008. -
-
National Accounting and the Business Cycle in Other
-
Sovereign risk: the impact of national numerical fiscal rules, (with Anna Iara) voxeu.org, 20 January 2011 link. The column was quoted by eurointelligence’s news-brief
of January 20. -
Diverging trends in money demand and housing across the Eurozone,
(with P. van den Noord and R. Setzer),
VoxEu.org, May 15,
2010. -
Budget institutions can reduce fiscal indiscipline, published at http://www.eurointelligence.com,
26.03.2007 -
Budget institutions to counteract fiscal indiscipline in - Aufschwung anno 1851? Zur
Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandprodukts in der Zeit 1851-1913, November 2006, (pdf). -
Is there a need to harmonize social policies in -
Research and Development in Europe: Implications for the -
Local Fiscal Crises in Federal Systems, ZEI report
12/13 2003, p.6. -
Estimating an Investment Function (with Susanne Mundschenk),
2001. -
The Effects of Public
Expenditure on Economic Growth, Diplomarbeit, http://ideas.repec.org/e/pwo44.html |
||||
CV
|
|
|
|||
|
Professional
experience |
|
|
|||
|
2011 – present |
|
|
|||
|
2008 – 2011 |
Economist, DG ECFIN, European Commission |
|
|||
|
2004 – 2008 |
Economist, Deutsche Bundesbank |
|
|||
|
2005 – present |
|
||||
|
2000 – 2004 |
Research Fellow, Center
for European Integration Studies (ZEI),
University of Bonn |
|
|||
|
2002 |
Visiting
researcher, University of Pittsburgh |
|
|||
|
Internships |
- European
Central Bank (ECB), - Inter-American
Development Bank (IADB), - Hermes Kreditversicherungs-AG,
Hamburg, Germany, - Hanns Seidel
Foundation, |
|
|||
|
University
education |
|
|
|||
|
Ph.D. in
Economics |
University of Bonn, |
|
|||
|
M.A. in
Economics |
University of Bonn, |
|
|||
|
Graduate
Studies |
University of Toulouse, |
|
|||
|
B.A. in
Economics (equivalent) |
University of Passau, |
|
|||
|
B.A. in
Philosophy (equivalent) |
University of
Passau, |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Presentations
|
|
|||
|
|
Numerous
presentations at international conferences and Universities |
|
|||
|
|
Teaching and lecturing
|
|
|||
|
|
Teaching Fall 2006, The Economics of
the European Union, University of
Pittsburgh Fall 2005, The Economics of
the European Union, University of
Pittsburgh Numerous lectures |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|||
