Guntram B. Wolff

 

Welcome to my personal homepage

I am the Director of Bruegel, the European think tank contributing to economic policy making. I am also a member of the French prime minister's Conseil d'analyse économique. I am regularily testifying in the European Parliament, the Bundestag and other parliaments and I have presented papers in the ECOFIN Council of Ministers. My research focuses on the European economy and its governance, on global macroeconomics and finance.

 

I joined Bruegel from the European Commission, where I worked on the euro area and the reform of its governance. Prior to joining the Commission I was at the Deutsche Bundesbank, where I coordinated the research team on fiscal policy. I also worked as an adviser to the International Monetary Fund. I am serving on the advisory board of the European Studies Center of Corvinus University. I hold a PhD from the University of Bonn, studied economics in Bonn, Toulouse, Pittsburgh and Passau, taught economics at Solvay Business School of ULB as well as the University of Pittsburgh. My academic papers are published in leading academic journals and I authored or edited four books.   I am fluent in German, English, French and have good notions of Bulgarian and Spanish. My columns and policy work is published and cited in leading international and national media.

 

My declaration of interests can be found here. My CV is here.

 

 

Areas of expertise: European economy and governance, global macroeconomics, finance.

Contact: guntram.wolff  bruegel.org

 

 

 

 

 

 

Publications      Columns            CV                           Teaching

 

 

 

 

 

Publications

 

 

Recent

- Towards a Euro Union, Aufbruch in die Eurounion (Glienicker Gruppe: Armin von Bogdandy, Christian CalliessHenrik Enderlein, Marcel Fratzscher, Clemens Fuest, Franz Mayer, Daniela Schwarzer, Max Steinbeis, Constanze Stelzenmüller, Jakob von Weizsäcker, Guntram Wolff), German Version, English Version, published first in Die Zeit on 17 October 2013.

- Memo to Merkel: post-election Germany and Europe (with Daniela Schwarzer), Bruegel Policy Brief 2013/5, also published in German at SWP

- The neglected side of banking union: reshaping Europe's financial system (with Andre Sapir), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013 presented at the informal ECOFIN in Vilnius, Lithuania.

- The ECB's OMT Programme and German constitutional concerns, August 2013, in: Brookings, Think Tank 20, The G20 and central Banks in the new world of unconventional monetary policy,

- Testimony on the Single Supervisory Mechanism for the Bundestag financial committee (in German), May 31 2013, link to page of Bundestag (here).

- EU-IMF assistance to euro area countries: an early assessment (with Jean Pisani-Ferry and André Sapir), Bruegel Blueprint, 2013/1

- Europe's growth problem (and what to do about it) (with Zsolt Darvas and Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel Policy Brief 2013/03, prepared for the informal ECOFIN Meeting in Dublin, April 2013.

- Should non-euro area countries join the single supervisory mechanism? (with Zsolt Darvas), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/6

- From supervision to resolution: next steps on the road to European Banking Union (with Nicolas Véron), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/4, based on a briefing for the European Parliament, also published as a PIIE policy brief.

- Options for a Euro area fiscal capacity (with Jean Pisani-Ferry and Erkki Vihriälä), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/1, based on briefing for European Parliament (pdf)

- A budget for Europe's monetary union, Bruegel Policy Contribution2012/22

- Testimony to Bundestag Haushaltsausschuss on the German implementation of the fiscal compact (in German), (pdf)

- On the effectiveness and legitimacy of EU economic policies (with Mark Hallerberg and Benedicta Marzinotto), Bruegel Policy Brief 2012/04.

- An assessment of the European Semester (with Mark Hallerberg and Benedicta Marzinotto), Report to the European Parliament, 1 October 2012.

-  The fiscal implications of a banking union (with Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel Policy Brief 2012/2, paper prepared for informal ECOFIN meeting in Nicosia, Cyprus, 14 September 2012.

What kind of European banking union? (with Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir, Nicolas Véron), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/12.

- The role of the ECB in financial assistance: some early observations (with Jean Pisan-Ferry and Silvia Merler), European Parliament Briefing, June 2012

- Arithmetics is absolute: euro area adjustment, Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/09.

- Propping up Europe? (with Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/07, briefing prepared for the monetary dialogue of the European Parliament.

- The messy rebuilding of Europe (with Jean Pisani-Ferry and André Sapir), Bruegel Policy Brief 2012/01, prepared for the informal ECOFIN in Copenhagen 30 March.

- Are banks affected by their holdings of government debt? (with Chiara Angeloni), Bruegel Working Paper 2012/07 

- Challenges for the Euro area and implications for Latvia, Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/ 05, briefing prepared for testimony at the Latvian Parliament.

- Corporate balance sheet adjustment: stylized facts, causes and consequences (with Eric Ruscher), Bruegel Working Paper, February 2012, also see the VoxEU column.

- The debt challenge in Europe (with Alan Ahearne), Bruegel Working Paper, January 2012.

- The logic of one currency only having one finance minister, Parliamentary Brief, 9 January 2012.

- Rating agencies and sovereign credit risk assessment (with Nicolas Véron), Bruegel Policy Contribution for European Parliament hearing, December 2011.

- What kind of fiscal union?, (with Benedicta Marzinotto and André Sapir), Bruegel Policy Brief, 23 November 2011.

- An evaluation of IMF surveillance of the euro area, (with Jean Pisani-Ferry and André Sapir), Bruegel Blueprint, Volume XIV

- Is recent bank stress really driven by the sovereign debt crisis?, Bruegel Policy Contribution 12/2011 (see also my VoxEU column on it as well as Stephanie Flanders blog and FT’s money supply blog)

- Changing of the guard: huge challenges ahead for the new ECB president, Bruegel Policy Contribution for European Parliament Hearing, September 2011.

- How effective and legitimate is the European Semester? Increasing the role of the European Parliament, (with Mark Hallerberg and Benedicta Marzinotto), Bruegel Working Paper 09/2011.

- An action plan for Europe’s leaders, (with Benedicta Marzinotto and Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel policy contribution, 20 July 2011

- The euro area’s macroeconomic balancing act, Bruegel policy contribution, 18 May 2011

- Banking and Sovereign Risk in the euro area, (with Stefan Gerlach and Alexander Schulz), CEPR DP 7833, Deutsche Bundesbank DP 9/2010, The paper is discussed in the German newspaper Börsenzeitung of 27. August 2010. Here is an earlier ECB conference version.

 

Journals

20. Rules and Risk in the euro area, (with Anna Iara), European Journal of Political Economy, forthcoming, previously published as Bruegel Working Paper 10/2011.

19. Aufbruch in die Eurounion (Glienicker Gruppe: Armin von Bogdandy, Christian CalliessHenrik Enderlein, Marcel Fratzscher, Clemens Fuest, Franz Mayer, Daniela Schwarzer, Max Steinbeis, Constanze Stelzenmüller, Jakob von Weizsäcker, Guntram Wolff), German Version, English Version, Zeitschrift für Rechtspolitik, 46(8), pp 248-251, 28. November 2013.

18. Corporate balance sheet adjustment: stylized facts, causes and consequences (with Eric Ruscher), Review of Economics, vol. 64, pp 1-21, 2013, earlier Bruegel working paper February 2012, also see the VoxEU column.

17. Should non-euro area countries join the single supervisory mechanism? (with Zsolt Darvas), Danube: Law and Economics Review, vol 4(2),  pp 141-163, 2013, Bruegel Version published as Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/6

16. The euro area crisis and policy lessons (with Chiara Angeloni and Silvia Merler), The International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs, vol 47(4), 2012 (link). 

15. Money demand in the euro area: new insights from disaggregated data, (with Ralph Setzer), International Economics and Economic Policy, 2012, (linkolder working paper version European Economy-Economic Paper No 373MPRA 17483

14. Identifying discretionary fiscal policy reactions with real time data (with Ulf von Kalckreuth), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2011 (link) older working paper version Bundesbank DP 24-2007.

13. Heterogeneity in money holdings across euro area countries: the role of housing, (with Ralph Setzer and Paul van den Noord), European Journal of Political Economy (link), older version: European Economy - Economic Paper 407, Deutsche Bundesbank DP 4/2010. see also:VoxEu.org, May 15. 2010 and European Economy Research Letter

12. The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: a disaggregated SVAR analysis (with Kirsten H. Heppke-Falk and Jörn Tenhofen), Journal of Economics and Statistics – Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 230 (3), 2010.older version Bundesbank DP 41-2006.

11. The German sub-national government bond market: structure, determinants of yield spreads and Berlin’s foregone bail-out (with Alexander Schulz), Journal of Economics and Statistics – Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 229(1), 61-83, 2009. (pdf) An initial version of the article appeared as Bundesbank DP 6-2008, see also Bundesbank monthly bulletin article of June 2008.

10. Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia in EMU (with Mark Hallerberg), Public Choice, 136(3-4), 379-396, 2008.(Springer online) working paper: Bundesbank DP 35-2006.

9. The effectiveness of subsidies revisited: accounting for wage and employment effects in business R&D (with Volker Reinthaler), Research Policy, 37, 1403-1412, 2008.(sciencedirect).

8. Moral hazard and bail-out in fiscal federations: Evidence for the German Länder (with Kirsten Heppke-Falk), Kyklos – International Review for Social Sciences, 61(3), 425-46, 2008.(article online), working paper: Bundesbank DP 07-2007. See also Bundesbank monthly bulletin article of October 2007.

7. Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal transparency and sovereign risk premia (with Kerstin Bernoth),Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 55(4), 465-87, 2008. (article online), working paper versions Bundesbank DP 19-2006, cesifo WP 1732, DNB working paper 103, 2006.

6. Fiscal Crises in U.S. Cities: Structural and Non-structural Causes, ICFAIJournal of Public Finance, VI(1), February 2008,working paper: ZEI Working Paper B04-28.

5. Foreign direct investment in the enlarged EU: do taxes matter and to what extent?, Open Economies Review 18(3), 327-46, 2007.(Springer online), working paper version Bundesbank DP 13-2006, online appendix.

4. What do deficits tell us about debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU (with Jürgen von Hagen), Journal of Banking and Finance, volume 30 (12), 3259-3279, 2006.(sciencedirect), working paper version:Bundesbank DP 38-2004, CEPR DP4759, 2004; The article was discussed by Wolfgang Munchau in the Financial Times, December 13, 2004 and by Sophie Büning  in the Financial Times Deutschland, December 6, 2004.

3. Measuring tax burdens in Europe, The Swiss Review of International Economic Relations (Aussenwirtschaft), volume 3/2006.working paper version: ZEI Working Paper B05-9.

2. A Compromise Estimate of German Net National Product 1851-1913 and its Implications for Growth and Business Cycles (with Carsten Burhop), Journal of Economic History, volume 65 (3), p. 613-657, 2005.This research was discussed by Jennifer Lachman in the Handelsblatt on May 15, 2006, p.11 (pdf).

1. Data and method choice and their relevance for business cycle history; Datenwahl, Methodenwahl und ihre Bedeutung für die Konjunkturgeschichte (German with English abstract, with Carsten Burhop), Vierteljahrschrift für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte, volume 91 (2), 2004. (abstract).

 

Books

EU-IMF assistance to euro area countries: an early assessment (with Jean Pisani-Ferry and André Sapir), Bruegel Blueprint, XIX, 2013/1

-  Transatlantic Economic Challenges in an Era of Growing Multipolarity, Peterson Institute for International Economics Special Report 22, edited by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Nicolas Véron and Guntram B. Wolff, July 2012, ISBN paper 978-0-88132-645-1 (PIIE link)

- Resolving the European Debt Crisis Peterson Institute for International Economics Special Report 21, edited by William R. Cline and Guntram B. Wolff, March 2012, ISBN paper 978-0-88132-642-0

An evaluation of IMF surveillance of the euro area, (with Jean Pisani-Ferry and André Sapir), Bruegel Blueprint, Volume XIV

 

 

Chapters in books and reports

-  Global imbalances, in: "Economic crisis in Europe: causes, consequences and responses" by Paul van den Noord and Istvan P. Szekely (eds.), Barnes and Nobel, 2011, (with Eric Ruscher).

- Balance sheet adjustment in the corporate sector, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 9(3), (with E. Ruscher), 2010 (pdf).

- Competitiveness and current account divergences in the euro area, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 9(1), (with E. Ruscher and M. Zogala), 2010 (pdf). The Quarterly Report is discussed in the NZZ, the Handelsblatt, and in the Japanese Economist. Long version of the report is published as “Surveillance of intra-euro-area competitiveness and imbalances”, European Economy 1/2010. The Eurogroup concluded on the issue on March 15, 2010 (word). The article is discussed by Ruth Berschens in the Handelsblatt Nr. 100 of 27.05.2010 page 8.

- Underlying domestic macroeconomic imbalances fuelled current account deficits, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 9(1), (with E. Ruscher and M. Zogala), 2010 (pdf).

- Anatomy of current account surpluses in the euro area, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 9(1), 2010 (pdf). The article is discussed by Ruth Berschens in the Handelsblatt Nr. 100 of 27.05.2010 page 8.

- Global current-account imbalances and implications for the euro area, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 8(3), (with M. Giorgio Marrano), October 2009 (pdf).

- Competitiveness developments in the euro area, in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Brussels, Vol. 8(1), (with N. Balta and A. Turrini), March, 2009 (pdf).

- Bank lending and transmission to the real economy (with G. Tournemire), in: Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, European Commission, DG ECFIN, Volume 7 (4), December, 2008 (pdf).

- Discussion of “European Productivity Gaps: Is R&D the Solution?”, in: “Competitiveness and Growth in Europe: Lessons and Policy Implications for the Lisbon Strategy”, Susanne Mundschenk, Michael Stierle, Ulrike Stierle - von Schütz and Iulia Traistaru (eds.), Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK; Northhampton, MA, USA, 2006.

- Regional Specialization and Employment Dynamics in Transition Countries (with Iulia Traistaru) in: "Emerging Market Economies and European Economic Integration", Scott Hacker and Börje Johansson (eds.), Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK; Northhampton, MA, USA, 2004. (pdf)working paper version ZEI Working Paper B02-18, 2002.

- Adjustment Capability of Regional Labour Markets (with Thiess Büttner, Vera Gacs, Peter Huber, Anna Iara, and Iulia Traistaru), report to the European Commission, 2003 (pdf).

 

Working papers

- Are banks affected by their holdings of government debt? (with Chiara Angeloni), Bruegel Working Paper 2012/07

- Corporate balance sheet adjustment: stylized facts, causes and consequences (with Eric Ruscher), Bruegel Working Paper, February 2012, also see the VoxEU column.

- The debt challenge in Europe (with Alan Ahearne), Bruegel Working Paper, January 2012.

- How effective and legitimate is the European Semester? Increasing the role of the European Parliament, (with Mark Hallerberg and Benedicta Marzinotto), Bruegel Workling Paper 09/2011.

- Rules and Risk in the euro area, (with Anna Iara), Bruegel Working Paper 10/2011, older version: Rules and risk in the euro area: does rules-based national fiscal governance contain sovereign bond spreads?,  European Economy - Economic Paper 433

- Banking and Sovereign Risk in the euro area, (with Stefan Gerlach and Alexander Schulz), CEPR DP 7833, Deutsche Bundesbank DP 9/2010, preliminary ECB conference version.

- External rebalancing is not just an exporters’ story: real exchange rates, the non-tradable sector and the euro, (with Eric Ruscher), European Economy-Economic Paper No 375, 2009.

- Sovereign bond market integration: the euro, trading platforms and financial crises, (with Alexander Schulz), 2009. MPRA 16900older version is “sovereign bond market integration: the euro, trading platforms and globalization, Bundesbank DP 12-2008, European Economy-Economic Paper No 332, (pdf) 2008.

- Does anticipation of government spending matter? The role of (non-) defense spending (with Jörn Tenhofen) Bonn Econ DP 12/2010Older version: Does anticipation of government spending matter? Evidence from an expectation augmented VAR, Bundesbank DP 14-2007, 2007.

- Schuldenanstieg und Haftungsausschluss im deutschen Föderalstaat: Zur Rolle des Moral Hazard, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability working paper, 2008.

- East Germany: Transition with Unification, Experiments and Experiences(with Jürgen von Hagen and Rolf R. Strauch), ZEI Working Paper B02-19, 2002.

- National Accounting and the Business Cycle in Germany 1851-1913 (with Carsten Burhop), 2002 (pdf).

 

Policy Contributions and Briefs

- The fiscal implications of a banking union (with Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel Policy Brief 2012/2, paper prepared for informal ECOFIN meeting in Nicosia, Cyprus, 14 September 2012.

- What kind of European banking union? (with Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir, Nicolas Véron), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/12.

- Arithmetics is absolute: euro area adjustment, Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/09.

- Propping up Europe? (with Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/07, briefing prepared for the monetary dialogue of the European Parliament.

- The messy rebuilding of Europe (with Jean Pisani-Ferry and André Sapir), Bruegel Policy Brief 2012/01, prepared for the informal ECOFIN in Copenhagen 30 March.

- Challenges for the Euro area and implications for Latvia, Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/ 05, briefing prepared for testimony at the Latvian Parliament.

- Rating agencies and sovereign credit risk assessment (with Nicolas Véron), Bruegel Policy Contribution for European Parliament hearing, December 2011.

- What kind of fiscal union?, (with Benedicta Marzinotto and André Sapir), Bruegel Policy Brief, 23 November 2011.

- Is recent bank stress really driven by the sovereign debt crisis?, Bruegel Policy Contribution 12/2011 (see also my VoxEU column on it as well as Stephanie Flanders blog and FT’s money supply blog)

- Changing of the guard: huge challenges ahead for the new ECB president, Bruegel Policy Contribution for European Parliament Hearing, September 2011.

- An action plan for Europe’s leaders, (with Benedicta Marzinotto and Jean Pisani-Ferry), Bruegel policy contribution, 20 July 2011

- The euro area’s macroeconomic balancing act, Bruegel policy contribution, 18 May 2011

 

 

http://ideas.repec.org/e/pwo44.html

 

 

CV

 

 

Professional experience

 

 

 

2013 - present

 

2011 – 2013

Director, Bruegel

 

Deputy Director, Bruegel

 

 

2008 – 2011

Economist, DG ECFIN, European Commission

 

 

2004 – 2008

Economist, Deutsche Bundesbank

 

 

2005 – 2010

 

Center Associate, EUCE, University of Pittsburgh

 

2000 – 2004

Research Fellow, Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI), University of Bonn

 

 

2002

Visiting researcher, University of Pittsburgh

 

 

Internships

- European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt, Germany

- Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), Managua, Nicaragua,

- Hermes Kreditversicherungs-AG, Hamburg, Germany,

- Hanns Seidel Foundation, Rabat, Morocco

 

 

University education

 

 

Ph.D. in Economics

 

University of Bonn, Germany, 2004 (German “Dr. rer. pol.”), Department of Economics

 

 

M.A. in Economics

 

University of Bonn, Germany, 2000 (German “Diplom”)

 

 

Graduate Studies

University of Toulouse, France, 1997 – 1998

 

 

B.A. in Economics

   (equivalent)

 

University of Passau, Germany, 1997 (German “Vordiplom”)

 

 

B.A. in Philosophy

   (equivalent)

University of Passau, Germany, 1997 (German “Zwischenprüfung”)

 

 

 

 

 

Presentations

 

 

Numerous presentations at international conferences and Universities

 

 

 

Teaching and lecturing

 

 

Teaching

Fall 2012, European Economic Integration, Solvay Business School of Université Libre de Bruxelles

Fall 2006, The Economics of the European Union, University of Pittsburgh

Fall 2005, The Economics of the European Union, University of Pittsburgh

Numerous lectures